The cliche that comes into my head is "the grass is always greener".
The part that is not well discussed, as far as I have heard here in Calgary is what the ACTUAL economic impact of pumping more oil. So let's say we increase production by 10 percent or 15. That doesn't mean the net employment goes up by 15 percent, since so much of extraction and shipment is automated. There would be more equipment and servicing , and then more turnarounds, so that would be good for workers. And that would generate a small amount of spin off. But is more extraction a source of riches across the board. I don't see it.
I'm not the first to make this point, but much of the 9 demands made by the Premier are ones that benefit an industry and more narrowly, the corporations in that industry. And you can make an argument that we should make sure to benefit from extraction until there is none left or demand dries up. As someone who grew up on a dairy farm, we always milked the cows as much as we could until they moved onto becoming beef. But there were always new cows coming along. I am desperately waiting for a political party in Alberta that is getting ready for the future after extraction. That's a better form of diversifying than just adding new markets for oil and gas.
It's not how much they are producing, but how much MORE they could be producing without the stranglehold the federal government puts on Alberta. I will believe the federal government gets it when they not only repeal the emissions cap, but also get rid of the no pipelines bill and restrictions on Canadian tanker traffic on the west coast.
Yes this is pretty much what these voices are calling for. Only their demands matter. None of the concerns of the federation or other provinces do. The richest victims in the country.
Listened to this podcast earlier on victimology and the prevalence of dark triad personalities among leadership positions. Very relevant imo
Albertans aren't the "richest". Simply the least poor in an increasingly poor country. Being 5'4" in a room of 4 footers doesn't make you tall. The 4 footers might be envious of you but it still doesn't make you tall.
By that logic we should repeal every labour law on the books.
Every industry in Canada could “produce more” if we allowed them to do whatever they wanted without any concern for social good. Cheap child labour? No safety regulations?
It’s a shallow argument to suggest that oil and gas should be treated unlike other industries who also face laws and limits.
I find it preposterous that these companies enjoy safe roads to drive their trucks on and reliable electricity and utility systems with which to operate their businesses, and yet somehow think that they shouldn’t have to abide by the rules of the social structure that provides those benefits.
If there is a reason to change those laws surely you could come up with a better argument than “more”.
Satisfying corporate greed doesn’t seem a good reason for government to alter any law intended for the good of it’s citizens.
I see confirmation bias is alive and well for hubristic journalists! And to answer Don Braids question on getting our product to the coasts with an independent Alberta, it would be same way west coast rail freight would get to the east, negotiation! And it would probably be easier to get it done after that than it is now!
A comedian from Ireland once joked on stage:”!Tell the Taliban just get ahead of the curve and open a quaint little tea and coffee shop. It’s still a popular place in Ireland.” My grandfather was from Scotland. Have been paying close attention to their history and politics. Sounds like it’s been a good choice to stay. I’m in Alberta now,46years,and my don,a lot of friends say “Seperate!” with emotion. Not a good way to vote. Worse plan of Danielle Smith was to break from CPP benefits. No!! She still hasn’t released the results of her survey
Excellent article. My take is that they don't want independence, and so discussions on currency, CPP and landlock are moot. They want independence from Canada. They will petition to join the US almost immediately if not sooner. Could even be on the ballot.
Great article . As a person who was born and raised in Alberta I know the life long frustrations Albertans have felt from the negative eastern attitudes toward us, as well as the view that we are a useful hinterland to serve the east. Nevertheless I would not and could not support separation and that view just further supports the negative view many easterners hold toward us. What would we gain separating?. Certainly I do not want this province to annex with Trump's USA and surely, as a land locked province, we could not stand alone. I am proud to be a Canadian first and feel this separation act is horribly counter productive. Not only does it create alienation with the rest of Canada but alienation within Alberta between those that want to separate and those that don't. This is NOT what we need right now! Poor leadership on her part. Why does she not learn from the mistakes of other leaders?
Changes to the emissions cap and building infrastructure to leverage the 4th largest oil and gas deposits in the world are good for Canada, not just Alberta. While we are humming and hawing the US is lining up replacement oil for Alberta heavy crude from potentially Syria and Venezuela through the extension of the Venezuela Chevron exceptions past the end of May. That's something to watch. Much of the Alberta heavy crude goes by rail to the USA. So landlocked Alberta can continue to sell to the USA. In the same way Venezuela and Syria can ship a similar grade of oil to the US southern ports, load it onto trains and ship it to the midwest USA where our oil goes. If the Syrians and Venezuelan shipments are not subject to tariffs there might be a cost advantage for them. Syria is not a lot of oil and Venezuela is a mess but Chevron is experienced in those oil fields. And a US company. One would think that the potential loss of the US demand would get Canadians thinking about how they can get this solved with Trump. When Trump says he doesn't need our oil he is not kidding. They are already engaged around the world in building replacements for what Alberta delivers. So let's sell to China all the Canadians will say with elbows up. Well the Chinese have locked in the supply of equivalent to Alberta oil from Iran and are the dedicated single customer for Iranian oil. The Iranians actually custom matched supply to specific Chinese requirements. And they use Chinese payment systems to settle. Good luck competing with that. So if we lose the US we will be frozen out of the 2 largest markets for our heavy oil. We don't have a pipeline to the east coast so Europe isn't a realistic option. Given the outsized revenue from our oil and gas exports to the US this problem should be the number one national priority.
Under a Harper Conservative majority there were no new pipelines. Under the Liberals a pipeline was completed to the west coast paid for by Canadian tax payers. Under Smith the development of renewable energy and the money and employment that would come from it was quashed for ideological reasons. It’s sad that diversifying the Alberta economy is not top of mind. Also, Alberta is on treaty land. Albertans are tenants. I would encourage those who are perpetually aggrieved and whose political philosophy can be reduced to “f***k Carney “ to leave and go it alone. These are difficult times and I don’t intend to entertain Quislings. Be constructive, you see what division has wrought in America.
What? Not one of you separatists mis-interpreted the so called “tanker ban”. It’s the rocks, kids, and the chance of a mega spill. No liberal chicanery here!
And why the focus on oil & gas? Alberta has lots of other industries. And they clean up their mess and pay taxes to local towns. Happy July 4th kids.
The problem with commenters who have no understanding of the oil and gas sector is the fallback to the false relevance of “highest production ever” argument - like that equals prosperity, opportunity, wealth creation. It does not - the capital for such production was spent decades ago. It does not translate to new growth. There is no new spending, opportunities for growth are squelched by federal regulations - artificially and intentionally killing the opportunity for growth and wealth creation is offensive. Equalization exponentially magnifies the inequity of this. Just because relative to crappy economic standards of most other provinces Alberta is doing better does not mean we are doing well. The relative economic underperformance of the ROC and overperformance of Alberta is not an acceptable rationale for accepting the status quo when that destines us to becoming poorer and poorer relative to the rest of the world. Why the rest of canada wants that is beyond me but I am tired of fighting with them about. Seems like Smith’s handling of the situation will result in a change of the status quo one way or another - fine by me. The status quo is absolutely not sustainable for Albertans.
"Seems like Smith’s handling of the situation will result in a change of the status quo one way or another - fine by me. The status quo is absolutely not sustainable for Albertans."
As an Albertan that makes no sense to me. I get that you want better - of course, we all do - but do you not think things either getting worse or getting much worse are altogether plausible outcomes of Smith's actions? What do you imagine the outcomes will be of a referendum where the leave side loses badly? What do you imagine the outcome of leave losing a closely fought referendum?
My view? What we have now is orders of magnitude more 'sustainable' than what we might find if we're not careful what we wish for.
My point, as I hope is obvious, is that this issue will consume Alberta’s politics, and politicians, to the exclusion of all else, for years. The time and energy could be used more productively.
You “ guys” from the east keep wanting to direct traffic in Alberta. Hint: Danielle Smith is “ nobody’s baby” right Sheila? As a BCer I’m thinking Ms. Smith will do the best for her province.
"On Thursday, energy minister Brian Jean announced that Alberta produced a record 4.19 million barrels of crude a day in March, up nearly 4 percent on last year.
'Record production” is hardly a stirring call to arms'."
Where is most of that production going to, and why? I think THAT is the reason for the call to arms. And, as kRockit notes, it's not just how much they're producing now, but how much MORE they could be and how much more could be going to market offshore instead of down south.
If Alberta separates it may validate that Canada does not make sense as a country. If Alberta goes then like dominos the other parts will follow and at that point may be better off as part of the USA. Hopefully that doesn't happen as Canada and the USA are better off as two separate democratic and capitalist political and economic entities. A monolith stretching from the Arctic to the Gulf of Mexico is in my opinion not healthy for the world or the peoples of the Americas.
Have most Canadians ever lived in the USA? Try it, not as a visitor, but as a resident not in the top 1% income earners, but as a regular person. You’ll probably regret missing many of the everyday things available in Canada.
Agreed. We need those answers. But first we need to ask the questions. And no amount of eastern trash talking targeting Danielle Smith will do that.
So, we want a new deal. And now she is wisely and effectively positioning us to develop alternatives. If you want the status quo, then sit there, call names and cash our cheques. But it’s not sustainable anymore.
Something is happening here! We have lived through an Eastern Liberal sponsored depression and we are refusing you do so again.
I say this not intending disrespect. But the level of ignorance that is required to point to the transmountain debacle as a reason to be grateful is astounding.
When the liberals took power, several such projects were in the works. Northern gateway was killed outright. Goal posts were moved repeatedly on approval processes for EE by the feds, which killed it.
Realize when I say killed - that’s a billion dollar write down.
There was a private proponent to transmountian, equally affected by changing the regulatory requirements and further impacted by bc opposition that got a ‘wink wink’ by the liberals, eager to soothe the eco uconscience of the eastern base without asking them to sacrifice their heavy industry.
The result was de facto nationalization of energy projects. No Albertan or Canadian should be thankful for any of that.
If they hadn’t backed transmountain, I can guarantee this separation movement would have occurred much earlier, and for good reason.
Thank you, I will research. I admit my memory of a lot of the developments are sketchy as I was quite busy at the time but I intend to find out.
I do remember Trudeau going to AB very early after defeating Harper and I thought it was a good idea to bridge build. He was attacked from day one and it only ever got worse.
Remember the NEP. I do. I was there when thousands of people lost homes, businesses shut down and we basically turned the lights off in Alberta thanks to Trudeau the dad. I was a senior corporate banker through that time and Alberta was destroyed by federal government policy. I resolved to never let it happen again.
And now we hear about protecting Quebec dairy and Ontario manufacturing jobs from Trump trade actions by applying a new tax on energy exports from Alberta. I see who that works for.
Quebec received 53% of the Equalization Payments in 2024. Alberta got the usual amount (zero). A significant share of the funding for that largesse was raised in Alberta but Quebec has (maybe until very recently) continuously spouted off about our “dirty oil”.
The feds built a pipeline after they had shut it down. Dumb in the extreme: the sponsor was chased out and the Liberals arranged for the taxpayer to step in. But the Liberals blocked future developments and project sponsors generally are more cautious now.
What else? Danielle Smith’s list of 9 demands is a good place to start in terms of what they did wrong and what would fix things.
But I am sincerely curious here: Do you really think that people outside of Alberta don’t understand? Or do they just not care or believe us? It’s a dangerous time for the country. Even Albertans (like myself), who consider themselves to be loyal Canadians, are fed up with the abuse.
The cliche that comes into my head is "the grass is always greener".
The part that is not well discussed, as far as I have heard here in Calgary is what the ACTUAL economic impact of pumping more oil. So let's say we increase production by 10 percent or 15. That doesn't mean the net employment goes up by 15 percent, since so much of extraction and shipment is automated. There would be more equipment and servicing , and then more turnarounds, so that would be good for workers. And that would generate a small amount of spin off. But is more extraction a source of riches across the board. I don't see it.
I'm not the first to make this point, but much of the 9 demands made by the Premier are ones that benefit an industry and more narrowly, the corporations in that industry. And you can make an argument that we should make sure to benefit from extraction until there is none left or demand dries up. As someone who grew up on a dairy farm, we always milked the cows as much as we could until they moved onto becoming beef. But there were always new cows coming along. I am desperately waiting for a political party in Alberta that is getting ready for the future after extraction. That's a better form of diversifying than just adding new markets for oil and gas.
It's not how much they are producing, but how much MORE they could be producing without the stranglehold the federal government puts on Alberta. I will believe the federal government gets it when they not only repeal the emissions cap, but also get rid of the no pipelines bill and restrictions on Canadian tanker traffic on the west coast.
Yes this is pretty much what these voices are calling for. Only their demands matter. None of the concerns of the federation or other provinces do. The richest victims in the country.
Listened to this podcast earlier on victimology and the prevalence of dark triad personalities among leadership positions. Very relevant imo
https://www.samharris.org/podcasts/making-sense-episodes/411-the-victimhood-pandemic
Albertans aren't the "richest". Simply the least poor in an increasingly poor country. Being 5'4" in a room of 4 footers doesn't make you tall. The 4 footers might be envious of you but it still doesn't make you tall.
By that logic we should repeal every labour law on the books.
Every industry in Canada could “produce more” if we allowed them to do whatever they wanted without any concern for social good. Cheap child labour? No safety regulations?
It’s a shallow argument to suggest that oil and gas should be treated unlike other industries who also face laws and limits.
I find it preposterous that these companies enjoy safe roads to drive their trucks on and reliable electricity and utility systems with which to operate their businesses, and yet somehow think that they shouldn’t have to abide by the rules of the social structure that provides those benefits.
If there is a reason to change those laws surely you could come up with a better argument than “more”.
Satisfying corporate greed doesn’t seem a good reason for government to alter any law intended for the good of it’s citizens.
I see confirmation bias is alive and well for hubristic journalists! And to answer Don Braids question on getting our product to the coasts with an independent Alberta, it would be same way west coast rail freight would get to the east, negotiation! And it would probably be easier to get it done after that than it is now!
A comedian from Ireland once joked on stage:”!Tell the Taliban just get ahead of the curve and open a quaint little tea and coffee shop. It’s still a popular place in Ireland.” My grandfather was from Scotland. Have been paying close attention to their history and politics. Sounds like it’s been a good choice to stay. I’m in Alberta now,46years,and my don,a lot of friends say “Seperate!” with emotion. Not a good way to vote. Worse plan of Danielle Smith was to break from CPP benefits. No!! She still hasn’t released the results of her survey
Excellent article. My take is that they don't want independence, and so discussions on currency, CPP and landlock are moot. They want independence from Canada. They will petition to join the US almost immediately if not sooner. Could even be on the ballot.
"You picked a fine time to leave me, Lucille".
Great article . As a person who was born and raised in Alberta I know the life long frustrations Albertans have felt from the negative eastern attitudes toward us, as well as the view that we are a useful hinterland to serve the east. Nevertheless I would not and could not support separation and that view just further supports the negative view many easterners hold toward us. What would we gain separating?. Certainly I do not want this province to annex with Trump's USA and surely, as a land locked province, we could not stand alone. I am proud to be a Canadian first and feel this separation act is horribly counter productive. Not only does it create alienation with the rest of Canada but alienation within Alberta between those that want to separate and those that don't. This is NOT what we need right now! Poor leadership on her part. Why does she not learn from the mistakes of other leaders?
Well said Sue
You're right Johnny, once the fuse is lit, it is hard to put out. You captured the situation well, as usual.
Changes to the emissions cap and building infrastructure to leverage the 4th largest oil and gas deposits in the world are good for Canada, not just Alberta. While we are humming and hawing the US is lining up replacement oil for Alberta heavy crude from potentially Syria and Venezuela through the extension of the Venezuela Chevron exceptions past the end of May. That's something to watch. Much of the Alberta heavy crude goes by rail to the USA. So landlocked Alberta can continue to sell to the USA. In the same way Venezuela and Syria can ship a similar grade of oil to the US southern ports, load it onto trains and ship it to the midwest USA where our oil goes. If the Syrians and Venezuelan shipments are not subject to tariffs there might be a cost advantage for them. Syria is not a lot of oil and Venezuela is a mess but Chevron is experienced in those oil fields. And a US company. One would think that the potential loss of the US demand would get Canadians thinking about how they can get this solved with Trump. When Trump says he doesn't need our oil he is not kidding. They are already engaged around the world in building replacements for what Alberta delivers. So let's sell to China all the Canadians will say with elbows up. Well the Chinese have locked in the supply of equivalent to Alberta oil from Iran and are the dedicated single customer for Iranian oil. The Iranians actually custom matched supply to specific Chinese requirements. And they use Chinese payment systems to settle. Good luck competing with that. So if we lose the US we will be frozen out of the 2 largest markets for our heavy oil. We don't have a pipeline to the east coast so Europe isn't a realistic option. Given the outsized revenue from our oil and gas exports to the US this problem should be the number one national priority.
Under a Harper Conservative majority there were no new pipelines. Under the Liberals a pipeline was completed to the west coast paid for by Canadian tax payers. Under Smith the development of renewable energy and the money and employment that would come from it was quashed for ideological reasons. It’s sad that diversifying the Alberta economy is not top of mind. Also, Alberta is on treaty land. Albertans are tenants. I would encourage those who are perpetually aggrieved and whose political philosophy can be reduced to “f***k Carney “ to leave and go it alone. These are difficult times and I don’t intend to entertain Quislings. Be constructive, you see what division has wrought in America.
What? Not one of you separatists mis-interpreted the so called “tanker ban”. It’s the rocks, kids, and the chance of a mega spill. No liberal chicanery here!
And why the focus on oil & gas? Alberta has lots of other industries. And they clean up their mess and pay taxes to local towns. Happy July 4th kids.
The problem with commenters who have no understanding of the oil and gas sector is the fallback to the false relevance of “highest production ever” argument - like that equals prosperity, opportunity, wealth creation. It does not - the capital for such production was spent decades ago. It does not translate to new growth. There is no new spending, opportunities for growth are squelched by federal regulations - artificially and intentionally killing the opportunity for growth and wealth creation is offensive. Equalization exponentially magnifies the inequity of this. Just because relative to crappy economic standards of most other provinces Alberta is doing better does not mean we are doing well. The relative economic underperformance of the ROC and overperformance of Alberta is not an acceptable rationale for accepting the status quo when that destines us to becoming poorer and poorer relative to the rest of the world. Why the rest of canada wants that is beyond me but I am tired of fighting with them about. Seems like Smith’s handling of the situation will result in a change of the status quo one way or another - fine by me. The status quo is absolutely not sustainable for Albertans.
"Seems like Smith’s handling of the situation will result in a change of the status quo one way or another - fine by me. The status quo is absolutely not sustainable for Albertans."
As an Albertan that makes no sense to me. I get that you want better - of course, we all do - but do you not think things either getting worse or getting much worse are altogether plausible outcomes of Smith's actions? What do you imagine the outcomes will be of a referendum where the leave side loses badly? What do you imagine the outcome of leave losing a closely fought referendum?
My view? What we have now is orders of magnitude more 'sustainable' than what we might find if we're not careful what we wish for.
My point, as I hope is obvious, is that this issue will consume Alberta’s politics, and politicians, to the exclusion of all else, for years. The time and energy could be used more productively.
And the status quo is absolutely not sustainable for the rest of Canada!
You “ guys” from the east keep wanting to direct traffic in Alberta. Hint: Danielle Smith is “ nobody’s baby” right Sheila? As a BCer I’m thinking Ms. Smith will do the best for her province.
"On Thursday, energy minister Brian Jean announced that Alberta produced a record 4.19 million barrels of crude a day in March, up nearly 4 percent on last year.
'Record production” is hardly a stirring call to arms'."
Where is most of that production going to, and why? I think THAT is the reason for the call to arms. And, as kRockit notes, it's not just how much they're producing now, but how much MORE they could be and how much more could be going to market offshore instead of down south.
If Alberta separates it may validate that Canada does not make sense as a country. If Alberta goes then like dominos the other parts will follow and at that point may be better off as part of the USA. Hopefully that doesn't happen as Canada and the USA are better off as two separate democratic and capitalist political and economic entities. A monolith stretching from the Arctic to the Gulf of Mexico is in my opinion not healthy for the world or the peoples of the Americas.
Have most Canadians ever lived in the USA? Try it, not as a visitor, but as a resident not in the top 1% income earners, but as a regular person. You’ll probably regret missing many of the everyday things available in Canada.
Agreed. We need those answers. But first we need to ask the questions. And no amount of eastern trash talking targeting Danielle Smith will do that.
So, we want a new deal. And now she is wisely and effectively positioning us to develop alternatives. If you want the status quo, then sit there, call names and cash our cheques. But it’s not sustainable anymore.
Something is happening here! We have lived through an Eastern Liberal sponsored depression and we are refusing you do so again.
Could you please elaborate on an Eastern Liberal sponsored depression? Depression??
I’m trying to understand the issues here. What did the Liberals do wrong? Did they not finance and build a pipeline for one?
What else should they have done? What would it take to fix things to your liking? Thanks
I say this not intending disrespect. But the level of ignorance that is required to point to the transmountain debacle as a reason to be grateful is astounding.
When the liberals took power, several such projects were in the works. Northern gateway was killed outright. Goal posts were moved repeatedly on approval processes for EE by the feds, which killed it.
Realize when I say killed - that’s a billion dollar write down.
There was a private proponent to transmountian, equally affected by changing the regulatory requirements and further impacted by bc opposition that got a ‘wink wink’ by the liberals, eager to soothe the eco uconscience of the eastern base without asking them to sacrifice their heavy industry.
The result was de facto nationalization of energy projects. No Albertan or Canadian should be thankful for any of that.
If they hadn’t backed transmountain, I can guarantee this separation movement would have occurred much earlier, and for good reason.
Thank you, I will research. I admit my memory of a lot of the developments are sketchy as I was quite busy at the time but I intend to find out.
I do remember Trudeau going to AB very early after defeating Harper and I thought it was a good idea to bridge build. He was attacked from day one and it only ever got worse.
Sure. Thanks very much for the note.
Remember the NEP. I do. I was there when thousands of people lost homes, businesses shut down and we basically turned the lights off in Alberta thanks to Trudeau the dad. I was a senior corporate banker through that time and Alberta was destroyed by federal government policy. I resolved to never let it happen again.
And now we hear about protecting Quebec dairy and Ontario manufacturing jobs from Trump trade actions by applying a new tax on energy exports from Alberta. I see who that works for.
Quebec received 53% of the Equalization Payments in 2024. Alberta got the usual amount (zero). A significant share of the funding for that largesse was raised in Alberta but Quebec has (maybe until very recently) continuously spouted off about our “dirty oil”.
The feds built a pipeline after they had shut it down. Dumb in the extreme: the sponsor was chased out and the Liberals arranged for the taxpayer to step in. But the Liberals blocked future developments and project sponsors generally are more cautious now.
What else? Danielle Smith’s list of 9 demands is a good place to start in terms of what they did wrong and what would fix things.
But I am sincerely curious here: Do you really think that people outside of Alberta don’t understand? Or do they just not care or believe us? It’s a dangerous time for the country. Even Albertans (like myself), who consider themselves to be loyal Canadians, are fed up with the abuse.
Thanks for inquiring.