In the spirit of Churchill, Canada will never surrender

Trust that America will do the right thing, after the other options are exhausted

Photo by Arthur Osipyan on Unsplash

The latest take by Gzero Media’s Ian Bremmer is that Canada will “quietly fold” after the general election and accept Donald Trump’s trade terms. “The imbalance of power is such that they have no credible strategy to push back”.

Ian is a smart guy but really? I think that is a misreading of the resolve Canadians are feeling.

Wars usually end with negotiations but not always. Rather than being forced to “fold”, Canada should be patient and resolute, confident that the United States will eventually do the right thing, once all the other options have been exhausted.

That, of course, is a paraphrase of a Winston Churchill quote. And the moment feels Churchillian. Canada is fighting for its very existence. But the country has rediscovered its mojo. A Leger poll indicated that 85 percent of Canadians have no interest in joining the United States. (In fact, the survey suggested twice as many Americans want their state becoming a Canadian province than the small minority of Canadians who are supportive of becoming the 51st state).

No-one is under any illusions that there will be trouble ahead.

Things got real on Wednesday, as Trump announced a 25 percent tariff on foreign autos. (Incidentally, good luck trying to figure out what constitutes an American car - every auto contains content from Canada and Mexico.)

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Tariffs will drive the country into recession. The U.S. economy relies on domestic consumption, while Canada sends 80 percent of its goods south. One economist calculated that tariffs, followed by dollar-for-dollar retaliation, will hurt Canada five times more than the U.S.

Early indicators of those woes are already present, even before the new levies hit in earnest. The building industry reported February home sales in the Greater Toronto Area were 84 percent below the 10 year average. We are approaching a “cost to build” crisis, industry executives warned, where falling demand and prices make it unaffordable to construct new homes.

But are Americans really prepared for the economic madness Trump has foisted on them?

U.S. consumer confidence hit a 12 year low this week, according to the Conference Board.

Trillions of dollars in wealth are being vapourized, as markets tumble. General Motors stock fell 7 percent at market opening on Thursday.

The government of Canada is intent that Trump will get the blame, running ads in 12 red states pointing out that tariffs are a tax on American groceries and gas prices.

Concerns are rising across the U.S. A Harris poll for the Guardian suggested nearly three in four Americans are concerned about the impact of tariffs on inflation. Those worries will be relayed to senators, House representatives, mayors and governors across the country, who will exert their own pressure on the White House.

Trump blustered on Truth Social that if the European Union works with Canada to retaliate, larger scale tariffs than already planned will be placed on them “in order to protect the best friend that either of those two countries ever had”. Aside from referring to the 27 member EU as a country, he is essentially arguing that if his former allies have the audacity to defend themselves while he stamps on their faces, he will take a whip to them too.

Canada has to have the patient confidence that Trump’s economic madness is unsustainable. Measures are already in place to respond with retaliatory tariffs; to help affected workers access employment insurance; and, to support companies through various government agencies.

Liberal leader Mark Carney said this week that Canada will wait the crisis out: “Trump wants to break us, so he can own us. We’re not going to let that happen.”

If the will stays strong, the country can ride out this storm. In June 1940, Churchill urged his countrymen to fight on the beaches and never surrender, in the face of what an imminent Nazi invasion. The great leader didn’t believe that Britain could go it alone - after giving his famous speech, he is said to have remarked: “We will fight them with the butt end of broken beer bottles because that’s bloody well all we’ve got.”

But he did have an almost mystical belief that the arc of history bends towards justice, and that, sooner or later, “the New World with all its power and might” would “step forth to the rescue and liberation of the Old.”

Canadians need to harness the spirit of Churchill, keep their elbows up and trust that America will come to its senses.

Photo by Vincent Creton on Unsplash